Friday, October 9, 2009
DEAR ALL
I will be entering hospital later next week to undergo a cystoscopy to remove a small wart-like growth in my urinary bladder, which was detected on October 5,2009. According to my doctor, I will have to stay in the hospital for four days followed by five or six days of rest at home. He has advised me to postpone all activities and travels till October 31. He says I should be able to resume my normal activities and travels from November 1, provided the removed wart does not turn out to be malignant.Keeping my fingers crossed.I may not be writing regularly during this period.Warm regards. B.Raman
INDIA'S OPTIONS VIS-A-VIS AFGHANISTAN
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.562
B.RAMAN
Fifteen civilians and two Afghan policemen deployed outside the Indian Embassy in Kabul are reported to have been killed on October 8,2009, when an explosive-laden vehicle driven by a suicide bomber exploded outside the Embassy. A claim of responsibility was subsequently made through a web site linked with the Neo Taliban (Afghan) stating that the blast was carried out by the Taliban.
2. This was the second blast directed at the Indian Embassy. The first one in July,2008, was more deadly killing about 60 persons ----two of them senior diplomats of the Embassy, one a civilian and the other an officer of the Indian Army. The blast of July,2008, indicated inadequacies in the physical security of the Embassy premises and its ability to withstand the impact of a severe explosion. These deficiencies have since been removed. The fact that the blast of October 8----- though reportedly as powerful as last year's--- could not cause major damages in the Embassy premises and resulted only in injuries to three Indian personnel shows that the fortified Embassy premises was well able to withstand the force of the blast.
3. The blast of last year as well as the latest one indicate weaknesses in access control. The Taliban and its associates such as Gulbuddin Heckmatyar's Hizbe Islami have been targeting for months not only the Indian Embassy, but also the Embassies of Western countries, particularly the US. The fact that the terrorists---whoever they might be--- have so far not been able to get as close to the US and other Western Embassies as they have been able to reach in the case of the Indian Embassy indicates gaps in access control. This has to be discussed by Indian security with their Afghan counterparts, who are responsible for access control and the gaps identified and removed.4. The Indian Embassy has been twice targeted by Taliban elements because it is viewed as the co-ordinator of the various projects undertaken with Indian assistance for the economic development of Afghanistan and for the promotion of democracy. Though the Indian-aided projects have no military significance, Pakistan views these projects, the resulting increase in the Indian presence for the execution of these projects and the developing relations between India and Afghanistan at the Governmental level as detrimental to its interests.
5. There is a convergence of objectives between Pakistan and the Taliban on the need to force India to reverse its policies towards Afghanistan and reduce its presence and activities to a level, which would be acceptable to Pakistan. For more than a year now, Pakistan has mounted a campaign against the Indian presence and activities------ through diplomatic means as well as through its surrogates in Afghanistan such as the Taliban.
6. The objective of the diplomatic campaign is to make the US to bring about a dilution of the Indian role through pressures on the Government of India as well as that of Hamid Karzai. The objective of the use of the surrogates in Afghan territory is to make India pay a bloody price for its presence and intimidate it into re-considering its Afghan presence even if the pressure through the US does not work.
7. The intimidatory attacks on Indian nationals and presence and on Indian establishments in Afghanistan are likely to continue. The Government of India is determined not to be intimidated and this determination has to continue. One could be certain that the Government of India would have evaluated the risks involved by undertaking development and democracy-promotion projects in Afghanistan. One must be prepared to face more such attacks and not to let these attacks come in the way of the implementation of the Indian projects.
8, At the same time, one has to repeatedly make a vulnerabilitry assessment of the Indian projects and the Indian diplomatic and consular missions and constantly upgrade their physical security. Sitting tight, going ahead with our projects whatever be the threats and constantly identifying and removing gaps in physical security, with the co-operation of the Afghan Government, is one of the two options available to India in Afghan territory. The other option is to mobilise the support of the traditionally pro-Indian sections of the Afghan civil society and the pro-India Pashtun elements in Pakistan for the continuance of the Indian projects through various instruments of soft power such as radio, TV, personal interactions etc.
9. There is another dimension----that is, identifying and neutalising the terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistani territory from where these attacks are mounted, with the connivance of the Pakistani agencies. This calls for a proactive counter-sanctuaries policy. What are the options available to India to target the sanctuaries and how to implement the ultimately adopted option have to be examined at a high level and necessary directives given to all those who will be invlolved in counter-sanctuaries actions. Until and unless this is done, periodic attacks on Indian nationals and interests in Afghanistan will continue. The primary decision that the time has come for a counter-sanctuaries strategy has to come from the political leadership, which has till now been reluctant to go into the activist mode. ( 10-10-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
SECURITY OF PAK'S NUCLEAR ESTABLISHMENTS: A WAKE-UP CALL
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 561
B.RAMAN
On April 1,2009, a pilotless plane (Drone) of the USA's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) attacked with a missile the house of Hakimullah Mehsud in the Khadezai area of the Orakzai Agency in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. Twelve persons were killed. Hakimullah himself, who was apparently one of the targets, escaped unhurt and warned of a retaliatory strike by the Pakistani Taliban in Islamabad.
2. The retaliation through a suicide bomber came within three days. Late on the evening of April 4,2009, a suicide bomber blew himself up in front of the barracks of a company of the Frontier Constabulary (FC) from the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), which was deployed in Islamabad on VIP security duties. At least eight members of the FC were killed by the explosion.The FC consists almost entirely of Pashtuns recruited in the NWFP, the FATA and the Pashtun majority areas of Balochistan. The FC has been in the forefront of the operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Pashtun belt.
3.On October 4,2009, Hakimullah Mehsud, who has taken over as the Amir of the TTP after the death of Baitullah Mehsud in a Drone strike on August 5,2009, invited five Pashtun journalists to a hide-out in South Waziristan to dispel rumours spread by the Pakistani authorities after the death of Baitullah that at a shoora of the TTP held to choose the successor to Baitullah, fighting broke out between his followers and those of Waliur Rehman and that Hakimullah was killed in the exchange of fire. These rumours persisted even after two persons claiming to be Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman had rung up some journalists to repudiate these rumours and announce jointly that the TTP had elected Hakimullah as its Amir and Waliur as its Amir for the South Waziristan area. These rumours revived again recently through reports circulating in Pakistan as well as orininating from the US.
4 Talking to these journalists, Hakimullah reportedly pledged to take revenge against the US for the Drone attacks and reiterated the previous TTP claim that the Pakistani Government was cooperating with the US for carrying out the missile strikes by Predators. However, he added that the TTP wasn’t against Pakistan or its people as its fight was with the pro-US rulers of the country.
5.On October 5,2009, at least five UN officials, a foreigner and two women among them, were killed and eight others injured when a suicide bomber dressed as a Frontier Constabulary soldier managed to enter the Islamabad office of the World Food Programme without being checked by security guards from a private company as well as an FC unit deployed in Islamabad to provide security to VIPs and important establishments and blew himself up. The FC personnel guarding the building reportedly came from the same unit which was attacked by a suicide bomber of the TTP on April 4,2009.
6. The "Dawn" of Karachi reported as follows on October 6,2009: "Senior investigation officers said they had not ruled out the possibility that the bomber was an FC man.The investigators detained an FC man on duty and a private security guard posted at the office’s gate. An official said it was premature to say anything about the bomber’s identity, but the possibility that he was a serving or ex-member of the paramilitary force could not be ruled out. Another top security official said if it was established that the attacker belonged to the FC, it might change the entire dynamics of not just the investigation, but the counter-terror operation."
7. If it is established that the suicide bomber was in fact a serving member of the FC, it would be an indicatior of the success of the TTP in penetrating FC units deployed outside the Pashtun tribal belt. In the past, there had been many instances of the TTP penetrating FC units deployed in the tribal belt and winning over its personnel. There had also been instances of FC personnel deployed in the tribal areas deserting from their units and joining the TTP.
8. If the TTP has succeeded in penetrating FC units deployed in Islamabad and other places, it should set an alarm bell ringing because the Pakistan Army uses FC units for physical security duties at nuclear establishments. This could provide an opportunity for the TTP and Al Qaeda to penetrate these establishments with the help of their moles. ( 6-10-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
On April 1,2009, a pilotless plane (Drone) of the USA's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) attacked with a missile the house of Hakimullah Mehsud in the Khadezai area of the Orakzai Agency in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. Twelve persons were killed. Hakimullah himself, who was apparently one of the targets, escaped unhurt and warned of a retaliatory strike by the Pakistani Taliban in Islamabad.
2. The retaliation through a suicide bomber came within three days. Late on the evening of April 4,2009, a suicide bomber blew himself up in front of the barracks of a company of the Frontier Constabulary (FC) from the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), which was deployed in Islamabad on VIP security duties. At least eight members of the FC were killed by the explosion.The FC consists almost entirely of Pashtuns recruited in the NWFP, the FATA and the Pashtun majority areas of Balochistan. The FC has been in the forefront of the operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Pashtun belt.
3.On October 4,2009, Hakimullah Mehsud, who has taken over as the Amir of the TTP after the death of Baitullah Mehsud in a Drone strike on August 5,2009, invited five Pashtun journalists to a hide-out in South Waziristan to dispel rumours spread by the Pakistani authorities after the death of Baitullah that at a shoora of the TTP held to choose the successor to Baitullah, fighting broke out between his followers and those of Waliur Rehman and that Hakimullah was killed in the exchange of fire. These rumours persisted even after two persons claiming to be Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman had rung up some journalists to repudiate these rumours and announce jointly that the TTP had elected Hakimullah as its Amir and Waliur as its Amir for the South Waziristan area. These rumours revived again recently through reports circulating in Pakistan as well as orininating from the US.
4 Talking to these journalists, Hakimullah reportedly pledged to take revenge against the US for the Drone attacks and reiterated the previous TTP claim that the Pakistani Government was cooperating with the US for carrying out the missile strikes by Predators. However, he added that the TTP wasn’t against Pakistan or its people as its fight was with the pro-US rulers of the country.
5.On October 5,2009, at least five UN officials, a foreigner and two women among them, were killed and eight others injured when a suicide bomber dressed as a Frontier Constabulary soldier managed to enter the Islamabad office of the World Food Programme without being checked by security guards from a private company as well as an FC unit deployed in Islamabad to provide security to VIPs and important establishments and blew himself up. The FC personnel guarding the building reportedly came from the same unit which was attacked by a suicide bomber of the TTP on April 4,2009.
6. The "Dawn" of Karachi reported as follows on October 6,2009: "Senior investigation officers said they had not ruled out the possibility that the bomber was an FC man.The investigators detained an FC man on duty and a private security guard posted at the office’s gate. An official said it was premature to say anything about the bomber’s identity, but the possibility that he was a serving or ex-member of the paramilitary force could not be ruled out. Another top security official said if it was established that the attacker belonged to the FC, it might change the entire dynamics of not just the investigation, but the counter-terror operation."
7. If it is established that the suicide bomber was in fact a serving member of the FC, it would be an indicatior of the success of the TTP in penetrating FC units deployed outside the Pashtun tribal belt. In the past, there had been many instances of the TTP penetrating FC units deployed in the tribal belt and winning over its personnel. There had also been instances of FC personnel deployed in the tribal areas deserting from their units and joining the TTP.
8. If the TTP has succeeded in penetrating FC units deployed in Islamabad and other places, it should set an alarm bell ringing because the Pakistan Army uses FC units for physical security duties at nuclear establishments. This could provide an opportunity for the TTP and Al Qaeda to penetrate these establishments with the help of their moles. ( 6-10-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, October 3, 2009
SUSPECTED DEATH OF YULDASHEV: GOOD NEWS FOR UZBEKISTAN,CHINA,GERMANY
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.560
B.RAMAN
In its relentless strikes with drones (pilotless planes) on suspected terrorist hide-outs in Pakistan's tribal belt, the US intelligence has been scoring two kinds of successes. The first is the kind of success where the US intelligence knows immediately after a strike whom it has targeted and killed. A good example was the drone strike on the house of the father-in-law of Baitullah Mehsud , the then Amir of thePakistani Taliban known as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in South Waziristan on August 5,2009. Immediately after the strike, the US intelligence knew and said with an 80 per cent certainty that it had killed Baitullah. The TTP initially denied the US claim, but subsequently had to admit his death.
2. The second is the kind of success of which the US intelligence becomes aware long after a strike. It attacks a place knowing it to be a terrorist hide-out without being aware of the identity of the inmates. After the strike, it realises through source information that one of the persons killed by it was someone important and becomes aware of his identity.
3. The reported death of Tohir Yuldashev, the Amir of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), would come in this category. On August27,2009, there was a drone strike on a suspected terrorist hide-out at Kanigoram in South Waziristan. At that time, the US intelligence was not aware as to whom it had killed. Much later, on September 29,2009, a man claiming to be Yuldashev's bodyguard reportedly phoned Radio Liberty in Prague to claim that Yuldashev was among those killed in this attack.This has subsequently been corroborated by tribal and Pakistani official sources cited in the Pakistani media, but not yet confirmed by the US intelligence. That is why I have called it a suspected death.
4. If ultimately confirmed, the death of Yuldashev would be the second instance in which drones have killed the Amirs (heads) of two dreaded terrorist organisations. US drones have killed many middle and even senior level leaders of Al Qaeda and other organisations, but not heads of organisations till their two successes in August----the confirmed death of Baitullah on August 5 and the reported, but not yet confirmed death of Yuldashev on August 27.
5.The reported elimination of Yuldashev would be greeted with relief not only by the counter-terrorism agencies of Uzbekistan and China,but also by the agencies of the West European countries faced with threats arising from members of their Muslim diaspora trained by the IMU and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), another Uzbek organisation, in their training camps in North Waziristan. Germany, which was recently threatened repeatedly by Al Qaeda and some of its affiliates, would have particular reason to be happy since some of the Germans of Turkish or Moroccan origin , who pose a threat to German security, had been trained in the camps of the two Uzbek organisations in North Waziristan.
6.The first signs of Islamic fundamentalism appeared in Uzbekistan in December 1991, when some unemployed Muslim youth seized the Communist Party headquarters in the eastern city of Namangan, to protest against the refusal of the local Mayor to permit the construction of a mosque. The protest was organised by Tohir Abdouhalilovitch Yuldashev, a 24-year-old college drop-out, who had become a Mulla, and Jumaboi Ahmadzhanovitch Khojaev, a former Soviet paratrooper who had served in Afghanistan and returned from there totally converted to Wahabism.
7. Yuldashev and Khojaev, who later adopted the alias Juma Namangani, after his hometown, became members of the Uzbekistan branch of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP). Following the IRP's refusal to support their demand for the establishment of an Islamic State in Uzbekistan, they formed their own party called the Adolat (Justice) Party, which was banned by President Islam Karimov. They then fled to Tajikistan. While Namangani fought in the local civil war, Yuldashev went to Chechnya to participate in the jihad there. In 1995, he went toPakistan, where the jihadi organisations gave him shelter in Peshawar. From there, he re-named the Adolat Party as the IMU and was allegedly in receipt of funds from the intelligence agencies of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. After Osama bin Laden shifted to Jalalabad from Khartoum in Sudan in 1996, Yuldashev crossed over into Afghanistan.
8. After the end of the civil war in Tajikistan, Namangani settled down for a while as a road transport operator. He was also allegedly involved in heroin smuggling from Afghanistan. Subsequently, he too crossed over into Afghanistan and joined the IMU and became its leader. The IMU allegedly earns a major part of its revenue from heroin smuggling.
9. After the Taliban captured Kabul in September, 1996, Namangani and Yuldashev held a press conference at Kabul at which they announced the formation of the IMU with Namangani as the Amir and Yuldashev as its military commander. In 1998, the IMU joined the International Islamic Front (IIF) of Al Qaeda. bin Laden was reportedly greatly interested in the IMU because he was hoping to use it for getting nuclear material and know-how from Russia and other constituent States of the erstwhile USSR.
10. The IMU's initial goal was described as the overthrow of Uzbek President Islam Karimov and the establishment of an Islamic State in Uzbekistan. It changed its name to the Islamic Party of Turkestan (IPT) in June 2001, and called for the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate in Central Asia consisting of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and China's Xinjiang province. It has been recruiting members from all these areas, including Uighurs from Xinjiang. Initially, its recruits were trained by the Arab instructors of Al Qaeda in the training camps in Afghan territory and after 9/11 by Chechen and Pashtun instructors of the Taliban in the South Waziristan area of Pakistan. Despite its 2001 change of name as IPT, it continues to be known in Uzbekistan as the IMU. The name IPT is not widely known.
11. After the reported death of Namangani in a US air strike in Afghanistan post-9/11, Yuldashev took over the leadership of the IMU as its Amir and crossed over with the surviving members of the IMU into South Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, where he and his Uzbek/Chechen instructors set up a training camp for training jihadi terrorists. In an operation launched by the Pakistani security forces in South Waziristan in March-April, 2004, to smoke out the remnants of Al Qaeda, Yuldashev was reported to have been injured, but he managed to escape.
12.Till March, 2007, Mir Ali in North Waziristan used to be the headquarters of the Islamic Jihad Group, also known as the Islamic Jihad Union. It ran a number of training camps there where jihadis from many Western countries, including Germany, China's Xinjiang, and Pakistan itself were trained by Uzbek and Chechen instructors. The IMU's headquarters used to be in the Azam Warsak area of SouthWaziristan. This area became the scene of violent attacks by sections of the local tribals on the Uzbeks living in the area following the alleged murder of a local tribal personality by an Uzbek resident of the area in the third week of March, 2007. In the ensuing clashes, nearly 100 persons were killed----about 70 Uzbeks and the remaining locals mainly belonging to the Darikhel and the Tojikhel sub-tribes of the Pashtuns. The Yargulkhel sub-tribe led by Noor Islam and his brother Haji Omar, two important pro-Taliban military commanders who had once fought in Afghanistan, supported the Uzbeks in their fight against the Darikhels and the Tojkhels. Some Yargulkhels were also killed. Ultimately, the IMU was forced to evacuate South Waziristan and shift to Mir Ali.
13.Following this, I had reported as follows in my article titled "Mir Ali In North Waziristan- : Under Uzbek Control ", which is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers24/paper2317.html : Quote According to well-informed sources in the Police of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan is under the effective control of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) headed by Qari Tohir Yuldashev. Small groups of Chechens and Uighurs are also present in the area. They work under the over-all command of Qari Tohir. They were being helped by Maulana Sadiq Noor, a local tribal leader close to the Neo Taliban. The IMU, with the help of Chechen instructors, has set up training camps in the area for training the recruits of the Neo Taliban, the jihadi terrorist organisations of Pakistan and individual jihadis from abroad-particularly from the Pakistani diaspora abroad."
14.After the Pakistani commando raid in the Lal Masjid of Islamabad between July 10 and `13, 2007, the Mehsuds of Baitullah joined hands with the IMU and the Islamic Jihad Group and they started instigating suicide terrorist attacks not only in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), but also outside the tribal belt---even in places like Islamabad and Rawalpindi.Coinciding with the commando raid, the Government of Pervez Musharraf sent reinforcements of security forces to North Waziristan. This was interpreted by sections of the local tribals as a violation of the peace agreement signed with them by the Pakistan Army in September,2006, and as a prelude to attacks on the headquarters of the IMU and the Islamic Jihad Group. They kidnapped nearly 300 members of the para-military forces and threatened to kill them at the rate of three a day if their followers in Government custody were not released and the reinforcements were not withdrawn.
15. Following the arrest in Germany in September,2007, of three German Muslims trained in the camps of the Islamic Jihad Group in the Mir Ali area, who were allegedly planning to attack a US military base in Germany, the Musharraf Government came under increased pressure from the US to act against pro-Al Qaeda jihadis in the Mir Ali area. There was similar pressure from the Chinese, who were concerned over the attacks on Chinese nationals working in Pakistan after the Lal Masjid raid. Even apart from these pressures, the worsening security situation in the tribal belt forced the Pakistani Security Forces to act against the Uzbeks, Chechens and Uighurs and their local tribal supporters. Reports from the NATO forces in Afghanistan of the presence of increasing numbers of Uzbeks, Chechens and Uighurs with the Neo Taliban forces operating in Afghan territory added to the pressure for action. Responding to these pressures, the Pakistani Government started sending further reinforcements to the area. It was a jihadi attack on one of the convoys carrying these reinforcements which triggered off a new round of deadly clashes.
16.About 200 members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) , the Islamic Jihad Group and the Pashtun tribal group led by Baitullah Mehsud and about a hundred members of the Pakistani Security Forces---mostly para-military personnel--- were killed in violent clashes between pro-Al Qaeda jihadis and the security forces in and around the Mir Ali area from October 6, 2007. The clashes started after the terrorists ambushed a convoy of the security forces in North Waziristan, inflicting an undisclosed number of fatalities and capturing some Pakistani personnel of the security forces.
17. The dead bodies of the some of the security forces personnel were later found abandoned with their throats slit. A Jirga of leading NorthWaziristan clerics led by former Member of the National Assembly from North Waziristan, Maulana Nek Zaman Haqqani, after daylong negotiations, received 30 bodies of the slain soldiers from the jihadis in Khaisur and handed them over to military officials in Mir Ali. The"News", a well-informed daily newspaper, quoted an unidentified jirga member as claiming on October 8, 2007, that the jirga members had recovered 73 bodies of soldiers, majority of which were burnt or badly mutilated, from the Mir Ali villages that they had visited. Malik SherKhan, a local tribal elder, said 45 bodies of soldiers had been handed over to military officials in Mir Ali. Quoting a local Government official,the "News" reported as follows: “Very few of the over 200 soldiers besieged by militants on Sunday (October 7) seem to have survived after the deadliest ever attack on them.” Following the discovery of over a dozen mutilated dead bodies, either beheaded or with their throats slit,of para-military personnel captured earlier by the men of Baitullah Mehsud, the para-military forces ran amok. Some surrendered to the terrorists, others discarded their uniforms and took shelter in the homes of the residents of the area and some others went on a killing spree, indiscriminately killing the local villagers and the Uzbeks, Chechens and Uighurs..
18.The Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) or the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG), came into being in Pakistani territory post 9/11 as a result of a split in the IMU following the US military strikes in Afghanistan against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. It describes Osama bin Laden, Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Neo Taliban, and Maulana Samiul Haq, the Amir of a faction of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam Pakistan, as its mentors. It focusses on training volunteers from the Western countries as well as from Uzbekistan.
19. It came to notice for the first time in April 2004 when it claimed responsibility for a series of suicide bombings around Tashkent and Bukharo in Uzbekistan which killed 47 people. The attacks targeted local government offices, as well as a crowded market. On July 30,2004, it carried out simultaneous bombing attacks on the US Embassy, the Israeli Embassy, and the office of the Uzbek Prosecutor General,killing at least two people and wounding many others.
20. A statement purported to have been disseminated by it said: “A group of young Muslims executed martyrdom operations that put fear in the apostate government and its infidel allies, the Americans and Jews. The mujahidin belonging to Islamic Jihad Group attacked both the American and Israeli embassies as well as the court building where the trials of a large number of the brothers from the Group had begun.These martyrdom operations that the group is executing will not stop, God willing. It is for the purpose of repelling the injustice of the apostate government and supporting the jihad of our Muslim brothers in Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan, the Hijaz, and in other Muslim countries ruled by infidels and apostates.”
21. On May 26, 2005, the US State Department issued the following statement: "The Department of State on May 25 announced the designation of the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organisation under Executive Order 13224. This designation blocks all property, and interests in property, of the organization that are in the United States, or come within the United States,or the control of U. S. persons. The Secretary of State took this action in consultation with the Attorney General, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Department of Homeland Security. The Islamic Jihad Group, active in Central Asia, broke away from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization that is listed by the UN 1267 Sanctions Committee. On July 30, 2004, the Islamic Jihad Group conducted coordinated bombing attacks in Tashkent against the U.S. and Israeli Embassies, and the office of the Uzbek Prosecutor General, killing at least two people and wounding nine. The Islamic Jihad Group claimed responsibility for these attacks and indicated that future attacks are planned. The Islamic Jihad Group continues to target Americans and U.S. facilities overseas and is a dangerous threat to U.S. interests. After an explosion at a safehouse in Bukharo, Uzbekistan, IJG suicide bombers attacked a popular bazaar and other locations in Tashkent in March and April 2004, resulting in the deaths of more than a dozen police officers and innocent bystanders and dozens of injuries. The attackers in the March and April 2004 attacks, some of whom were female suicide bombers, targeted the local government offices of the Uzbekistani and Bukharo police, killing approximately 47 people, including 33 terrorists. These attacks marked the first use of female suicide bombers in Central Asia. Those arrested in connection with the attacks in Bukharo have testified to the close ties between the IJG leaders and Usama bin Laden and Mullah Omar. Kazakhstani authorities have declared that IJG members were taught by al-Qaida instructors to handle explosives and to organize intelligence work and subversive activities. Kazakhstan has arrested several IJG members and put them on trial."
22 In October, 2005, the British Government declared it as a terrorist organisation despite strong opposition from human rights groups,which alleged that the Uzbek Government was projecting political dissidents opposed to it as pro-Al Qaeda terrorists.
23.The IJG, which was formed in 2002 to oppose the co-operation extended by the Government of Islam Karimov to the US in its operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, projects the US and Israel as the main enemies of Islam and all Muslim countries co-operating with the US as apostates, which need to be opposed. The IJG, which also has the over-all objective of a global Islamic Caliphate, projects itself as a global jihadi organisation and not a basically Uzbek organisation. It says that since Islam does not recognise nationalities or ethnicities, any Muslim can become its member irrespective of where he or she lives. Since it describes the US and Israel as its principal enemies, it welcomes volunteers from countries where the US and Israel have a large presence.
24. In an interview on May 31, 2007, Ebu Yahya Muhammed Fatih, who describes himself as the Commander of the Islamic Jihad Union,stated as follows:
"After the fall of the Afganistan Islamic Administration,we who shared the same opinions came together and decided to organize groups which will conduct jihad operations against the infidel constitution of cruel Karimov in Uzbekistan. The sole aim of all the emigrant-mujahedeen brothers was to find war-like solutions against the infidel constitution of cruel Karimov. For this aim our Union was established in 2002.
"Our Union's aim is, under the flag of justice and Islam Dominancy, to save our Müslim brothers who have been suffering from the cruelty of pre-Soviet period and Uzbekistan, and to take them out of the swamp of cruelty and infidelity, as well as to help other Müslim brothers all around the world as per God and his Prophet's orders.
"Members of our Union are not members of a specific tribe or a nation. As there is no nationalism and tribalism in Islam, our Union is formed of the believers from all over the world and multi-national emigrants travelling to praise the religion.
"Today we proceed according to our targeted goals with all our means. Muslim youth in the republics of former Soviet Union who found the path of Allah and are ready to fight for their religion have been trained in various fields in the training facilities of the Union. One of the armed forces of the Union is active in Afghanistan. Besides, we have been in contact and also been working on our common targets together with Caucasian mujahedeens. We have also been working together on plans and aims against the infidel regime of Uzbekistan which is one of our major targets."
25. In April, 2007, the US Embassy in Berlin announced that it was strengthening security at US facilities in Germany in response to what it described as an increased threat of terrorism. Mr. August Hanning, a former head of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency known as the Bundes Nachrichten Dienst (BND), who was the then Deputy Interior Minister, said in an interview that 14 German Islamists had gone to Pakistan for training. He also said that in recent months the Pakistani authorities had detained at least seven German Islamists “who could have been involved in planning attacks”.
26. On September 5, 2007, German Federal Prosecutor Monika Harms announced the arrest of three persons and the recovery from them of 700 kilos of chemicals capable of being converted into explosives. German media reports said that they were planning attacks against a US military base in Ramstein and the Frankfurt airport. Two of the arrested persons were described as white converts to Islam, both German nationals, and the third as of Turkish origin. The Federal Prosecutor named the three persons aged 22,28 and 29 as belonging to the German cell of the Islamic Jihad Union. It was reported that seven more members of the cell were still at large.
27.There is another Yuldashev in the jihadi world of Uzbekistan ---- by the first name Akram.In 1992, Akram Yuldashev,then a 29-year-old maths teacher of Andijan, published a pamphlet titled "Yimonga Yul" (Path to faith) on what he projected as the superiority of Islamic moral values. This brought him many supporters and his pamphlet was widely read. In 1998, the authorities arrested him on a charge of possessing narcotics and he was jailed for 30 months. However, he was prematurely released in December 1998.At the time of his arrest, he was working in a furniture company. He was again arrested in February 1999 following explosions in Tashkent, accused of participating in acts of terrorism and sentenced to 17 years in jail. The charge-sheet filed against him described him as the head of a jihadi organisation called Akramia, named after him, whose objective, it was alleged, was to convert Uzbekistan into an Islamic State ruled according to the Sharia.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
B.RAMAN
In its relentless strikes with drones (pilotless planes) on suspected terrorist hide-outs in Pakistan's tribal belt, the US intelligence has been scoring two kinds of successes. The first is the kind of success where the US intelligence knows immediately after a strike whom it has targeted and killed. A good example was the drone strike on the house of the father-in-law of Baitullah Mehsud , the then Amir of thePakistani Taliban known as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in South Waziristan on August 5,2009. Immediately after the strike, the US intelligence knew and said with an 80 per cent certainty that it had killed Baitullah. The TTP initially denied the US claim, but subsequently had to admit his death.
2. The second is the kind of success of which the US intelligence becomes aware long after a strike. It attacks a place knowing it to be a terrorist hide-out without being aware of the identity of the inmates. After the strike, it realises through source information that one of the persons killed by it was someone important and becomes aware of his identity.
3. The reported death of Tohir Yuldashev, the Amir of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), would come in this category. On August27,2009, there was a drone strike on a suspected terrorist hide-out at Kanigoram in South Waziristan. At that time, the US intelligence was not aware as to whom it had killed. Much later, on September 29,2009, a man claiming to be Yuldashev's bodyguard reportedly phoned Radio Liberty in Prague to claim that Yuldashev was among those killed in this attack.This has subsequently been corroborated by tribal and Pakistani official sources cited in the Pakistani media, but not yet confirmed by the US intelligence. That is why I have called it a suspected death.
4. If ultimately confirmed, the death of Yuldashev would be the second instance in which drones have killed the Amirs (heads) of two dreaded terrorist organisations. US drones have killed many middle and even senior level leaders of Al Qaeda and other organisations, but not heads of organisations till their two successes in August----the confirmed death of Baitullah on August 5 and the reported, but not yet confirmed death of Yuldashev on August 27.
5.The reported elimination of Yuldashev would be greeted with relief not only by the counter-terrorism agencies of Uzbekistan and China,but also by the agencies of the West European countries faced with threats arising from members of their Muslim diaspora trained by the IMU and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), another Uzbek organisation, in their training camps in North Waziristan. Germany, which was recently threatened repeatedly by Al Qaeda and some of its affiliates, would have particular reason to be happy since some of the Germans of Turkish or Moroccan origin , who pose a threat to German security, had been trained in the camps of the two Uzbek organisations in North Waziristan.
6.The first signs of Islamic fundamentalism appeared in Uzbekistan in December 1991, when some unemployed Muslim youth seized the Communist Party headquarters in the eastern city of Namangan, to protest against the refusal of the local Mayor to permit the construction of a mosque. The protest was organised by Tohir Abdouhalilovitch Yuldashev, a 24-year-old college drop-out, who had become a Mulla, and Jumaboi Ahmadzhanovitch Khojaev, a former Soviet paratrooper who had served in Afghanistan and returned from there totally converted to Wahabism.
7. Yuldashev and Khojaev, who later adopted the alias Juma Namangani, after his hometown, became members of the Uzbekistan branch of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP). Following the IRP's refusal to support their demand for the establishment of an Islamic State in Uzbekistan, they formed their own party called the Adolat (Justice) Party, which was banned by President Islam Karimov. They then fled to Tajikistan. While Namangani fought in the local civil war, Yuldashev went to Chechnya to participate in the jihad there. In 1995, he went toPakistan, where the jihadi organisations gave him shelter in Peshawar. From there, he re-named the Adolat Party as the IMU and was allegedly in receipt of funds from the intelligence agencies of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. After Osama bin Laden shifted to Jalalabad from Khartoum in Sudan in 1996, Yuldashev crossed over into Afghanistan.
8. After the end of the civil war in Tajikistan, Namangani settled down for a while as a road transport operator. He was also allegedly involved in heroin smuggling from Afghanistan. Subsequently, he too crossed over into Afghanistan and joined the IMU and became its leader. The IMU allegedly earns a major part of its revenue from heroin smuggling.
9. After the Taliban captured Kabul in September, 1996, Namangani and Yuldashev held a press conference at Kabul at which they announced the formation of the IMU with Namangani as the Amir and Yuldashev as its military commander. In 1998, the IMU joined the International Islamic Front (IIF) of Al Qaeda. bin Laden was reportedly greatly interested in the IMU because he was hoping to use it for getting nuclear material and know-how from Russia and other constituent States of the erstwhile USSR.
10. The IMU's initial goal was described as the overthrow of Uzbek President Islam Karimov and the establishment of an Islamic State in Uzbekistan. It changed its name to the Islamic Party of Turkestan (IPT) in June 2001, and called for the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate in Central Asia consisting of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and China's Xinjiang province. It has been recruiting members from all these areas, including Uighurs from Xinjiang. Initially, its recruits were trained by the Arab instructors of Al Qaeda in the training camps in Afghan territory and after 9/11 by Chechen and Pashtun instructors of the Taliban in the South Waziristan area of Pakistan. Despite its 2001 change of name as IPT, it continues to be known in Uzbekistan as the IMU. The name IPT is not widely known.
11. After the reported death of Namangani in a US air strike in Afghanistan post-9/11, Yuldashev took over the leadership of the IMU as its Amir and crossed over with the surviving members of the IMU into South Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, where he and his Uzbek/Chechen instructors set up a training camp for training jihadi terrorists. In an operation launched by the Pakistani security forces in South Waziristan in March-April, 2004, to smoke out the remnants of Al Qaeda, Yuldashev was reported to have been injured, but he managed to escape.
12.Till March, 2007, Mir Ali in North Waziristan used to be the headquarters of the Islamic Jihad Group, also known as the Islamic Jihad Union. It ran a number of training camps there where jihadis from many Western countries, including Germany, China's Xinjiang, and Pakistan itself were trained by Uzbek and Chechen instructors. The IMU's headquarters used to be in the Azam Warsak area of SouthWaziristan. This area became the scene of violent attacks by sections of the local tribals on the Uzbeks living in the area following the alleged murder of a local tribal personality by an Uzbek resident of the area in the third week of March, 2007. In the ensuing clashes, nearly 100 persons were killed----about 70 Uzbeks and the remaining locals mainly belonging to the Darikhel and the Tojikhel sub-tribes of the Pashtuns. The Yargulkhel sub-tribe led by Noor Islam and his brother Haji Omar, two important pro-Taliban military commanders who had once fought in Afghanistan, supported the Uzbeks in their fight against the Darikhels and the Tojkhels. Some Yargulkhels were also killed. Ultimately, the IMU was forced to evacuate South Waziristan and shift to Mir Ali.
13.Following this, I had reported as follows in my article titled "Mir Ali In North Waziristan- : Under Uzbek Control ", which is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers24/paper2317.html : Quote According to well-informed sources in the Police of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan is under the effective control of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) headed by Qari Tohir Yuldashev. Small groups of Chechens and Uighurs are also present in the area. They work under the over-all command of Qari Tohir. They were being helped by Maulana Sadiq Noor, a local tribal leader close to the Neo Taliban. The IMU, with the help of Chechen instructors, has set up training camps in the area for training the recruits of the Neo Taliban, the jihadi terrorist organisations of Pakistan and individual jihadis from abroad-particularly from the Pakistani diaspora abroad."
14.After the Pakistani commando raid in the Lal Masjid of Islamabad between July 10 and `13, 2007, the Mehsuds of Baitullah joined hands with the IMU and the Islamic Jihad Group and they started instigating suicide terrorist attacks not only in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), but also outside the tribal belt---even in places like Islamabad and Rawalpindi.Coinciding with the commando raid, the Government of Pervez Musharraf sent reinforcements of security forces to North Waziristan. This was interpreted by sections of the local tribals as a violation of the peace agreement signed with them by the Pakistan Army in September,2006, and as a prelude to attacks on the headquarters of the IMU and the Islamic Jihad Group. They kidnapped nearly 300 members of the para-military forces and threatened to kill them at the rate of three a day if their followers in Government custody were not released and the reinforcements were not withdrawn.
15. Following the arrest in Germany in September,2007, of three German Muslims trained in the camps of the Islamic Jihad Group in the Mir Ali area, who were allegedly planning to attack a US military base in Germany, the Musharraf Government came under increased pressure from the US to act against pro-Al Qaeda jihadis in the Mir Ali area. There was similar pressure from the Chinese, who were concerned over the attacks on Chinese nationals working in Pakistan after the Lal Masjid raid. Even apart from these pressures, the worsening security situation in the tribal belt forced the Pakistani Security Forces to act against the Uzbeks, Chechens and Uighurs and their local tribal supporters. Reports from the NATO forces in Afghanistan of the presence of increasing numbers of Uzbeks, Chechens and Uighurs with the Neo Taliban forces operating in Afghan territory added to the pressure for action. Responding to these pressures, the Pakistani Government started sending further reinforcements to the area. It was a jihadi attack on one of the convoys carrying these reinforcements which triggered off a new round of deadly clashes.
16.About 200 members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) , the Islamic Jihad Group and the Pashtun tribal group led by Baitullah Mehsud and about a hundred members of the Pakistani Security Forces---mostly para-military personnel--- were killed in violent clashes between pro-Al Qaeda jihadis and the security forces in and around the Mir Ali area from October 6, 2007. The clashes started after the terrorists ambushed a convoy of the security forces in North Waziristan, inflicting an undisclosed number of fatalities and capturing some Pakistani personnel of the security forces.
17. The dead bodies of the some of the security forces personnel were later found abandoned with their throats slit. A Jirga of leading NorthWaziristan clerics led by former Member of the National Assembly from North Waziristan, Maulana Nek Zaman Haqqani, after daylong negotiations, received 30 bodies of the slain soldiers from the jihadis in Khaisur and handed them over to military officials in Mir Ali. The"News", a well-informed daily newspaper, quoted an unidentified jirga member as claiming on October 8, 2007, that the jirga members had recovered 73 bodies of soldiers, majority of which were burnt or badly mutilated, from the Mir Ali villages that they had visited. Malik SherKhan, a local tribal elder, said 45 bodies of soldiers had been handed over to military officials in Mir Ali. Quoting a local Government official,the "News" reported as follows: “Very few of the over 200 soldiers besieged by militants on Sunday (October 7) seem to have survived after the deadliest ever attack on them.” Following the discovery of over a dozen mutilated dead bodies, either beheaded or with their throats slit,of para-military personnel captured earlier by the men of Baitullah Mehsud, the para-military forces ran amok. Some surrendered to the terrorists, others discarded their uniforms and took shelter in the homes of the residents of the area and some others went on a killing spree, indiscriminately killing the local villagers and the Uzbeks, Chechens and Uighurs..
18.The Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) or the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG), came into being in Pakistani territory post 9/11 as a result of a split in the IMU following the US military strikes in Afghanistan against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. It describes Osama bin Laden, Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Neo Taliban, and Maulana Samiul Haq, the Amir of a faction of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam Pakistan, as its mentors. It focusses on training volunteers from the Western countries as well as from Uzbekistan.
19. It came to notice for the first time in April 2004 when it claimed responsibility for a series of suicide bombings around Tashkent and Bukharo in Uzbekistan which killed 47 people. The attacks targeted local government offices, as well as a crowded market. On July 30,2004, it carried out simultaneous bombing attacks on the US Embassy, the Israeli Embassy, and the office of the Uzbek Prosecutor General,killing at least two people and wounding many others.
20. A statement purported to have been disseminated by it said: “A group of young Muslims executed martyrdom operations that put fear in the apostate government and its infidel allies, the Americans and Jews. The mujahidin belonging to Islamic Jihad Group attacked both the American and Israeli embassies as well as the court building where the trials of a large number of the brothers from the Group had begun.These martyrdom operations that the group is executing will not stop, God willing. It is for the purpose of repelling the injustice of the apostate government and supporting the jihad of our Muslim brothers in Iraq, Palestine, Afghanistan, the Hijaz, and in other Muslim countries ruled by infidels and apostates.”
21. On May 26, 2005, the US State Department issued the following statement: "The Department of State on May 25 announced the designation of the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organisation under Executive Order 13224. This designation blocks all property, and interests in property, of the organization that are in the United States, or come within the United States,or the control of U. S. persons. The Secretary of State took this action in consultation with the Attorney General, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Department of Homeland Security. The Islamic Jihad Group, active in Central Asia, broke away from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a Specially Designated Global Terrorist organization that is listed by the UN 1267 Sanctions Committee. On July 30, 2004, the Islamic Jihad Group conducted coordinated bombing attacks in Tashkent against the U.S. and Israeli Embassies, and the office of the Uzbek Prosecutor General, killing at least two people and wounding nine. The Islamic Jihad Group claimed responsibility for these attacks and indicated that future attacks are planned. The Islamic Jihad Group continues to target Americans and U.S. facilities overseas and is a dangerous threat to U.S. interests. After an explosion at a safehouse in Bukharo, Uzbekistan, IJG suicide bombers attacked a popular bazaar and other locations in Tashkent in March and April 2004, resulting in the deaths of more than a dozen police officers and innocent bystanders and dozens of injuries. The attackers in the March and April 2004 attacks, some of whom were female suicide bombers, targeted the local government offices of the Uzbekistani and Bukharo police, killing approximately 47 people, including 33 terrorists. These attacks marked the first use of female suicide bombers in Central Asia. Those arrested in connection with the attacks in Bukharo have testified to the close ties between the IJG leaders and Usama bin Laden and Mullah Omar. Kazakhstani authorities have declared that IJG members were taught by al-Qaida instructors to handle explosives and to organize intelligence work and subversive activities. Kazakhstan has arrested several IJG members and put them on trial."
22 In October, 2005, the British Government declared it as a terrorist organisation despite strong opposition from human rights groups,which alleged that the Uzbek Government was projecting political dissidents opposed to it as pro-Al Qaeda terrorists.
23.The IJG, which was formed in 2002 to oppose the co-operation extended by the Government of Islam Karimov to the US in its operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, projects the US and Israel as the main enemies of Islam and all Muslim countries co-operating with the US as apostates, which need to be opposed. The IJG, which also has the over-all objective of a global Islamic Caliphate, projects itself as a global jihadi organisation and not a basically Uzbek organisation. It says that since Islam does not recognise nationalities or ethnicities, any Muslim can become its member irrespective of where he or she lives. Since it describes the US and Israel as its principal enemies, it welcomes volunteers from countries where the US and Israel have a large presence.
24. In an interview on May 31, 2007, Ebu Yahya Muhammed Fatih, who describes himself as the Commander of the Islamic Jihad Union,stated as follows:
"After the fall of the Afganistan Islamic Administration,we who shared the same opinions came together and decided to organize groups which will conduct jihad operations against the infidel constitution of cruel Karimov in Uzbekistan. The sole aim of all the emigrant-mujahedeen brothers was to find war-like solutions against the infidel constitution of cruel Karimov. For this aim our Union was established in 2002.
"Our Union's aim is, under the flag of justice and Islam Dominancy, to save our Müslim brothers who have been suffering from the cruelty of pre-Soviet period and Uzbekistan, and to take them out of the swamp of cruelty and infidelity, as well as to help other Müslim brothers all around the world as per God and his Prophet's orders.
"Members of our Union are not members of a specific tribe or a nation. As there is no nationalism and tribalism in Islam, our Union is formed of the believers from all over the world and multi-national emigrants travelling to praise the religion.
"Today we proceed according to our targeted goals with all our means. Muslim youth in the republics of former Soviet Union who found the path of Allah and are ready to fight for their religion have been trained in various fields in the training facilities of the Union. One of the armed forces of the Union is active in Afghanistan. Besides, we have been in contact and also been working on our common targets together with Caucasian mujahedeens. We have also been working together on plans and aims against the infidel regime of Uzbekistan which is one of our major targets."
25. In April, 2007, the US Embassy in Berlin announced that it was strengthening security at US facilities in Germany in response to what it described as an increased threat of terrorism. Mr. August Hanning, a former head of Germany’s foreign intelligence agency known as the Bundes Nachrichten Dienst (BND), who was the then Deputy Interior Minister, said in an interview that 14 German Islamists had gone to Pakistan for training. He also said that in recent months the Pakistani authorities had detained at least seven German Islamists “who could have been involved in planning attacks”.
26. On September 5, 2007, German Federal Prosecutor Monika Harms announced the arrest of three persons and the recovery from them of 700 kilos of chemicals capable of being converted into explosives. German media reports said that they were planning attacks against a US military base in Ramstein and the Frankfurt airport. Two of the arrested persons were described as white converts to Islam, both German nationals, and the third as of Turkish origin. The Federal Prosecutor named the three persons aged 22,28 and 29 as belonging to the German cell of the Islamic Jihad Union. It was reported that seven more members of the cell were still at large.
27.There is another Yuldashev in the jihadi world of Uzbekistan ---- by the first name Akram.In 1992, Akram Yuldashev,then a 29-year-old maths teacher of Andijan, published a pamphlet titled "Yimonga Yul" (Path to faith) on what he projected as the superiority of Islamic moral values. This brought him many supporters and his pamphlet was widely read. In 1998, the authorities arrested him on a charge of possessing narcotics and he was jailed for 30 months. However, he was prematurely released in December 1998.At the time of his arrest, he was working in a furniture company. He was again arrested in February 1999 following explosions in Tashkent, accused of participating in acts of terrorism and sentenced to 17 years in jail. The charge-sheet filed against him described him as the head of a jihadi organisation called Akramia, named after him, whose objective, it was alleged, was to convert Uzbekistan into an Islamic State ruled according to the Sharia.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
CONTINUING THREAT FROM INDIAN MUJAHIDEEN
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.559 B.RAMAN
It is one year since the last reported terrorist attack (in New Delhi in September last year) by the Indian Mujahideen (IM) and its mentor the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). Not only has there been no jihadi terrorist attack in Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir(J&K) attributable to the IM for a year now, there has been no propaganda offensive by the IM either during this period. There was no evidence of IM involvement in the spectacular terrorist attack launched by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) of Pakistan in Mumbai from November 26 to 29,2008. A message purporting to be from one Deccan Mujahideen claiming responsibility for the Mumbai attack had originated from Pakistan at the time of the attack, but it was believed to have been sent at the instance of the LET set-up in Pakistan to confuse the Indian security agencies.
2. The period between November 2007 and September,2008, saw repeated terrorist strikes with timed improvised explosive devices (IEDs)by a group of jihadis originally belonging to the SIMI, who claimed to be operating as the Indian Mujahideen. These explosions, with many human fatalities, took place in three cities of Uttar Pradesh on the same day in November,2007, in Jaipur in May,2008, in Bangalore andAhmedabad in July,2008 and in New Delhi in September,2008. Messages purporting to be from the IM received by some media outfits claimed responsibility not only for these explosions, but also for some others which had taken place before November,2007, such as the explosions targeting suburban train passengers in Mumbai in July,2006.
3.The attacks between November,2007, and September,2008, were well-planned, well-orchestrated and well-executed and involved the involvement in their planning and execution by some well-educated members of the Indian Muslim community, some of whom had attended so-called secular educational institutions. Some of the educated Muslims involved and arrested by the Mumbai police were adept in the use of information technology (IT). One of them was reportedly working for a reputed IT company.
4.The Indian intelligence agencies and the police of the affected States, which were taken by surprise by these attacks, mobilised their resources and succeeded in arresting many of those involved. The investrigation brought out that long before launching these attacks, the SIMI had been planning for them and holding training camps for those to be used for these attacks in different parts of Indian territory,including in Kerala and Gujarat. The investigation also brought out that prompt follow-up action by the police of different States on the revelations about these training activities contained in the reports of the Madhya Pradesh police on the interrogation of some SIMI cadress arrested by them in the beginning of 2008 might have prevented at least some of these attacks.Unfortunately, the interrogation reports were allegedly not widely disseminated and no alert was sounded. The details of the planning and training came to be known only after the Ahmedabad explosions.
5. The credit for the one-year lull since September,2008, should go to the Indian intelligence agencies and the police of all the states. They have not allowed their preoccupation with detecting and neutralising the cells of the LET, the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and other Pakistani organisations come in the way of their hunt for the remnants of the IM and the SIMI, which have escaped attention and arrest so far. Many suspected cells of the SIMI and the IM in Kerala, and other places have been detected and neutralised by them during the last one year.
6. The details out of these detections and arrests as reported by the media periodically indicate that the SIMI and the IM have been re-strategising their operations for the future and biding their time before striking again. The one-year lull in the terrorist strikes of the IM and the SIMI should not be interpreted as indicating any set-back suffered by them. The arrests made during this period of lull indicate continued planning and training for more attacks.
7. The IM and the SIMI continue to be as serious a threat to our internal security as they were in 2008. (30-9-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
It is one year since the last reported terrorist attack (in New Delhi in September last year) by the Indian Mujahideen (IM) and its mentor the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). Not only has there been no jihadi terrorist attack in Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir(J&K) attributable to the IM for a year now, there has been no propaganda offensive by the IM either during this period. There was no evidence of IM involvement in the spectacular terrorist attack launched by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) of Pakistan in Mumbai from November 26 to 29,2008. A message purporting to be from one Deccan Mujahideen claiming responsibility for the Mumbai attack had originated from Pakistan at the time of the attack, but it was believed to have been sent at the instance of the LET set-up in Pakistan to confuse the Indian security agencies.
2. The period between November 2007 and September,2008, saw repeated terrorist strikes with timed improvised explosive devices (IEDs)by a group of jihadis originally belonging to the SIMI, who claimed to be operating as the Indian Mujahideen. These explosions, with many human fatalities, took place in three cities of Uttar Pradesh on the same day in November,2007, in Jaipur in May,2008, in Bangalore andAhmedabad in July,2008 and in New Delhi in September,2008. Messages purporting to be from the IM received by some media outfits claimed responsibility not only for these explosions, but also for some others which had taken place before November,2007, such as the explosions targeting suburban train passengers in Mumbai in July,2006.
3.The attacks between November,2007, and September,2008, were well-planned, well-orchestrated and well-executed and involved the involvement in their planning and execution by some well-educated members of the Indian Muslim community, some of whom had attended so-called secular educational institutions. Some of the educated Muslims involved and arrested by the Mumbai police were adept in the use of information technology (IT). One of them was reportedly working for a reputed IT company.
4.The Indian intelligence agencies and the police of the affected States, which were taken by surprise by these attacks, mobilised their resources and succeeded in arresting many of those involved. The investrigation brought out that long before launching these attacks, the SIMI had been planning for them and holding training camps for those to be used for these attacks in different parts of Indian territory,including in Kerala and Gujarat. The investigation also brought out that prompt follow-up action by the police of different States on the revelations about these training activities contained in the reports of the Madhya Pradesh police on the interrogation of some SIMI cadress arrested by them in the beginning of 2008 might have prevented at least some of these attacks.Unfortunately, the interrogation reports were allegedly not widely disseminated and no alert was sounded. The details of the planning and training came to be known only after the Ahmedabad explosions.
5. The credit for the one-year lull since September,2008, should go to the Indian intelligence agencies and the police of all the states. They have not allowed their preoccupation with detecting and neutralising the cells of the LET, the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and other Pakistani organisations come in the way of their hunt for the remnants of the IM and the SIMI, which have escaped attention and arrest so far. Many suspected cells of the SIMI and the IM in Kerala, and other places have been detected and neutralised by them during the last one year.
6. The details out of these detections and arrests as reported by the media periodically indicate that the SIMI and the IM have been re-strategising their operations for the future and biding their time before striking again. The one-year lull in the terrorist strikes of the IM and the SIMI should not be interpreted as indicating any set-back suffered by them. The arrests made during this period of lull indicate continued planning and training for more attacks.
7. The IM and the SIMI continue to be as serious a threat to our internal security as they were in 2008. (30-9-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, September 20, 2009
AL QAEDA WARNS GERMANS, CITES MUMBAI
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO. 558
B.RAMAN
Al Qaeda has reportedly warned of a terrorist strike in Germany, similar to the past strikes by pro-Al Qaeda elements in Madrid (March 2004),London (July 2005) and Mumbai, if the German voters do not vote against the present Government of Germany in the elections being held on September 27,2009.
2. The video message, the warning contained in it and the reference to Madrid are meant to influence the voting through intimidation and bring about a reversal of the German policy of participating in the NATO operations in Afghanistan. While the references to the Madrid and London attacks are clear, it is not clear from the message whether the reference to Mumbai seeks to recall the multiple explosions in suburban trains in July,2006, or the commando-style attacks with hand-held weapons and explosives by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on multiple-targets in November,2008, or both.The responsibility for the July-2006 attacks has not been conclusively established so far.
3. The message seeks to give the impression of Al Qaeda being confident of carrying out its threat in reality if its warning is not heeded. A detailed analysis of the message by Nick Grace, an American counter-terrorism analyst, is available at the web site of the "Long WarJournal" of the US, which monitors systematically all developments bearing on international terrorism. It may be seen athttp://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/09/al_qaeda_warns_germa.php . The "Long War Journal" and its analyses enjoy a very high level of credibility in international counter-terrorism circles.
4. According to the analysis by Nick Grace, the warning message has been issued by Bekkay Harrach, alias Al Hafidh Abu Talha al Almani, a person of Moroccan origin, who grew up in Germany and then gravitated to Al Qaeda. He is presently believed to be somewhere in theAf-Pak region. Nick Grace points out in his analysis that this is the third warning issued by Harrach this year. Nick Grace says: "His previous warning to Germany, on Jan. 17, 2009, coincided with a massive car bomb attack on the heavily guarded German embassy in Kabul that was orchestrated by the notorious Haqqani Network. Four Afghan civilians and an American soldier died in the attack." His mention of the Haqqani network refers to Jalalludin Haqqani and his son Serajuddin Haqqani, who are reported to be operating from the North Waziristan area of Pakistan. While some sources attributed the huge explosion outside the Indian Embassy in Kabul in July last year to the LET, other sources suspected the Haqqani network to have been responsible. The Haqqani network is as close to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence as the LET.
5. To quote again from Nick Grace's analysis:Harrach has "warned that if Chancellor Angela Merkel is reelected on Sept. 27, Germany will be directly attacked." Nick Grace adds: "The latest video by Harrach is most striking because its themes and packaging are targeted almost exclusively for a Western audience. Speaking softly in fluent German, without the usual militant or religious props featured in past al Qaeda messages, he stares directly into the camera and only occasionally looks down to turn over the pages of his speech. He never wags his finger or raises his voice. The video carries no subtitling in Arabic. "
6. The picture of Harrach as he appears in the video message has been reproduced by the "Long War Journal" along with the analysis. He is clad in typical Western attire with a suit and a tie. His attire reminds one of the attire worn by the volunteers of the Hizbut Tehrir, which advises its followers to avoid dressing themselves in a manner typical of Muslims. It is likely that if Al Qaeda already has its volunteers in Germany to carry out the threat they may not be attired like Muslims and they may avoid going to mosques and other places frequented by Muslims in order not to draw suspicion upon themselves.
7. If Al Qaeda carries out the threat, will it be an attack with timed explosives as in Madrid and Mumbai--July 2006 or a suicide attack as in London or a commando-style attack with hand-held weapons as in Mumbai--26/11? Will it be an attack confined to public transportation systems as in Madrid, London and Mumbai-July 2006 or will it be in public places as in Mumbai--26/11? These are important questions, which would certainly be factored into by the German counter-terrorism authorities while planning their strategy to frustrate the plans of Al Qaeda.
8. The message, as analysed by Nick Grace, carries an implied assurance that the town of Kiel might not be attacked. This assurance is puzzling because on August 20,2006, the German police had arrested a Muslim from the Lebanon studying in the Kiel University on a charge of placing a timed explosive device (a suitcase bomb) on a commuter train in Dortmund on July 31,2006. It failed to explode. They managed to identify him through a closed circuit TV footage, which showed him placing the suitcase in a train. Another suitcase bomb,timed to explode at the same time, had been placed in a train at Koblenz. That too failed to explode. It is not known whether the police were able to identify and arrest the person who placed the second suit case bomb. The German media had reported that the identification of the first man was made possible by a tip-off from an unnamed foreign intelligence agency. These two incidents had indicated as early as 2006 that pro-Al Qaeda elements were wanting to target the public transportation system in Germany.
9. This is the second instance when there has been a reference to Mumbai in messages attributed to Al Qaeda.In a telephonic message to the British Broadcasting Corporation in the second week of February,2009,Mustafa Abu-al Yazid, who has been projected since 2007 as incharge of Al Qaeda operations in Afghanistan in liaison with the Neo Taliban of Mulla Mohammad Omar, warned India in the following words: “We send a short and succinct message to the Indian Government. The Mujahideen will never allow you to invade the Muslims and their lands in Pakistan. If you beguile yourselves into doing this, know well that you will pay a very heavy price, which you will regret much.We will call upon our whole Muslim nation, its Mujahideen and its martyrdom squads against you. We will strike your interests and your economic lifelines wherever they may be until you are demolished and bankrupt as America is being demolished and going bankrupt today.The Islamic nation which produced the audacious and heroic martyrs of Bombay, who struck you in the midst of your homes and humiliated you, is able to produce thousands more like them. You cannot be more powerful or have more ability than the Soviet Union which was destroyed on the rocks of the Afghanistan mountains nor Americans whose nose we rubbed in the dirt of Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.”The authenticity of the message could not be established. ( 20-9-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Al Qaeda has reportedly warned of a terrorist strike in Germany, similar to the past strikes by pro-Al Qaeda elements in Madrid (March 2004),London (July 2005) and Mumbai, if the German voters do not vote against the present Government of Germany in the elections being held on September 27,2009.
2. The video message, the warning contained in it and the reference to Madrid are meant to influence the voting through intimidation and bring about a reversal of the German policy of participating in the NATO operations in Afghanistan. While the references to the Madrid and London attacks are clear, it is not clear from the message whether the reference to Mumbai seeks to recall the multiple explosions in suburban trains in July,2006, or the commando-style attacks with hand-held weapons and explosives by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on multiple-targets in November,2008, or both.The responsibility for the July-2006 attacks has not been conclusively established so far.
3. The message seeks to give the impression of Al Qaeda being confident of carrying out its threat in reality if its warning is not heeded. A detailed analysis of the message by Nick Grace, an American counter-terrorism analyst, is available at the web site of the "Long WarJournal" of the US, which monitors systematically all developments bearing on international terrorism. It may be seen athttp://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/09/al_qaeda_warns_germa.php . The "Long War Journal" and its analyses enjoy a very high level of credibility in international counter-terrorism circles.
4. According to the analysis by Nick Grace, the warning message has been issued by Bekkay Harrach, alias Al Hafidh Abu Talha al Almani, a person of Moroccan origin, who grew up in Germany and then gravitated to Al Qaeda. He is presently believed to be somewhere in theAf-Pak region. Nick Grace points out in his analysis that this is the third warning issued by Harrach this year. Nick Grace says: "His previous warning to Germany, on Jan. 17, 2009, coincided with a massive car bomb attack on the heavily guarded German embassy in Kabul that was orchestrated by the notorious Haqqani Network. Four Afghan civilians and an American soldier died in the attack." His mention of the Haqqani network refers to Jalalludin Haqqani and his son Serajuddin Haqqani, who are reported to be operating from the North Waziristan area of Pakistan. While some sources attributed the huge explosion outside the Indian Embassy in Kabul in July last year to the LET, other sources suspected the Haqqani network to have been responsible. The Haqqani network is as close to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence as the LET.
5. To quote again from Nick Grace's analysis:Harrach has "warned that if Chancellor Angela Merkel is reelected on Sept. 27, Germany will be directly attacked." Nick Grace adds: "The latest video by Harrach is most striking because its themes and packaging are targeted almost exclusively for a Western audience. Speaking softly in fluent German, without the usual militant or religious props featured in past al Qaeda messages, he stares directly into the camera and only occasionally looks down to turn over the pages of his speech. He never wags his finger or raises his voice. The video carries no subtitling in Arabic. "
6. The picture of Harrach as he appears in the video message has been reproduced by the "Long War Journal" along with the analysis. He is clad in typical Western attire with a suit and a tie. His attire reminds one of the attire worn by the volunteers of the Hizbut Tehrir, which advises its followers to avoid dressing themselves in a manner typical of Muslims. It is likely that if Al Qaeda already has its volunteers in Germany to carry out the threat they may not be attired like Muslims and they may avoid going to mosques and other places frequented by Muslims in order not to draw suspicion upon themselves.
7. If Al Qaeda carries out the threat, will it be an attack with timed explosives as in Madrid and Mumbai--July 2006 or a suicide attack as in London or a commando-style attack with hand-held weapons as in Mumbai--26/11? Will it be an attack confined to public transportation systems as in Madrid, London and Mumbai-July 2006 or will it be in public places as in Mumbai--26/11? These are important questions, which would certainly be factored into by the German counter-terrorism authorities while planning their strategy to frustrate the plans of Al Qaeda.
8. The message, as analysed by Nick Grace, carries an implied assurance that the town of Kiel might not be attacked. This assurance is puzzling because on August 20,2006, the German police had arrested a Muslim from the Lebanon studying in the Kiel University on a charge of placing a timed explosive device (a suitcase bomb) on a commuter train in Dortmund on July 31,2006. It failed to explode. They managed to identify him through a closed circuit TV footage, which showed him placing the suitcase in a train. Another suitcase bomb,timed to explode at the same time, had been placed in a train at Koblenz. That too failed to explode. It is not known whether the police were able to identify and arrest the person who placed the second suit case bomb. The German media had reported that the identification of the first man was made possible by a tip-off from an unnamed foreign intelligence agency. These two incidents had indicated as early as 2006 that pro-Al Qaeda elements were wanting to target the public transportation system in Germany.
9. This is the second instance when there has been a reference to Mumbai in messages attributed to Al Qaeda.In a telephonic message to the British Broadcasting Corporation in the second week of February,2009,Mustafa Abu-al Yazid, who has been projected since 2007 as incharge of Al Qaeda operations in Afghanistan in liaison with the Neo Taliban of Mulla Mohammad Omar, warned India in the following words: “We send a short and succinct message to the Indian Government. The Mujahideen will never allow you to invade the Muslims and their lands in Pakistan. If you beguile yourselves into doing this, know well that you will pay a very heavy price, which you will regret much.We will call upon our whole Muslim nation, its Mujahideen and its martyrdom squads against you. We will strike your interests and your economic lifelines wherever they may be until you are demolished and bankrupt as America is being demolished and going bankrupt today.The Islamic nation which produced the audacious and heroic martyrs of Bombay, who struck you in the midst of your homes and humiliated you, is able to produce thousands more like them. You cannot be more powerful or have more ability than the Soviet Union which was destroyed on the rocks of the Afghanistan mountains nor Americans whose nose we rubbed in the dirt of Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.”The authenticity of the message could not be established. ( 20-9-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, September 19, 2009
THE JIHADI WAR OF ATTRITION
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.557
B.RAMAN
In his latest message addressed to the Americam people, which was disseminated by pro-Al Qaeda web sites immediately after the eighth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, Osama bin Laden has warned of a long war of attrition against the US. The final objective of the war would be not just the withdrawal of the US-led forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, but a withdrawal of US support to Israel and the establishment of an independent State of Palestine with East Jerusalem in which the sacred Al Aqsa mosque is located as its capital.
2. He has cited the pro-Israel policies of successive US administrations as the principal cause for the 9/11 terrorist strikes and warned that the war thus launched would continue till the US gives up its pro-Israel policies and gives satisfaction to the Palestinians. His message is remarkably free of expressions such as jihad against the crusaders, recovery of legitimate Muslim territories etc. Just as President Barack Obama has reduced the objective of the military campaign in Afghanistan to one of preventing any more 9/11s in the US homeland mounted from the Af-Pak region, bin Laden has reduced the objective of Al Qaeda and his International Islamic Front to one of helping the Palestinians achieve an independent State and recover East Jerusalem from the control of Israel.
3. The war for such a purpose will be fought wherever possible and wherever opportunities for actions exist. It will not be confined only to the West Asian region. For him, not only the US, but any State, which supports Israel, could be a legitimate target of attacks---against its nationals and interests and against Israeli nationals in its territory.
4. It is in the light of this interpretation of his message that one has to assess India's vulnerabilities and the threats that India could face. As a country perceived by Al Qaeda and its associates in the Af-Pak region as close to Israel, India would continue to be vulnerable to terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda and its Pakistani associates as well as by our own jihadi groups, which share the perceptions of Al Qaeda. Their attacks against Indian nationals and interests or against Israeli and other pro-Israel foreign nationals in Indian territory would have two components--- a reprisal component and an attrition component.
5. Al Qaeda and sub-continental jihadi organisations have been looking for opportunities to target Israelis in Indian territory since 1991. The Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) targeted a group of young Israeli tourists in Srinagar in 1991. Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, who reportedly orchestrated the 9/11 strikes in the US, is reported to have told the US authorities during his interrogation that Al Qaeda wanted to target an Israeli diplomatic mission in India. For the last three or four years, there have been periodic reports of Indian and Pakistani organisations wanting to target Israeli tourists in Goa. And we had the targeted attack by Pakistani members of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on a Jewish cultural-cum-religious centre at the Narriman House in Mumbai and its Jewish inmates in November last year. The brutality exhibited by them towards the Jewish inmates was unparalleled in the history of jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory outside J&K. Other LET terrorists also targeted other foreigners in two hotels---many of them from countries involved in the operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
6. Not only the LET terrorists, but also their associates in other jihadi organisations in Pakistan and India must have been gratified by the ease with which the LET commandoes from Pakistan managed to hoodwink the Indian security agencies, hold them at bay for nearly 60 hours and receive the kind of prolonged global live publcity the like of which no other terrorist strike has achieved in recent years.
7. Just as we allegedly covered up our nuclear failure in 1998, we have covered up our counter-terrorism failures of November,2008.It has been an inadequately investigated terrorist conspiracy. Our euphoria over catching one terrorist alive has clouded our vision.Our over-focus on his version of the conspiracy has come in the way of our probing into other angles not possibly revealed by the captured terrorist or not within his knowledge. Every clued-up terrorist organisation strictly follows the principle of restrictive security. Every participant in a terrorist operation does not know all the details relating to that operation. That is where the importance of a satisfactory reconstruction of a terrorist operation arises. Without a satisfactory reconstruction, our ability to prevent similar strikes in future would be reduced. One is not certain there has been such a reconstruction. This would have been noticed by the terrorists too just as it has been noticed by the intelligence agencies of other countries.
8. The inadequate manner in which we have handled the sequel to Mumbai-26/11 is likely to have given cause for hope to the LET and other organisations that they can again successfully launch a major strike in Indian territory----even in Mumbai. It is also likely to have given cause for concern to the intelligence agencies of other countries about our ability to thwart a repeat of 26/11 by the LET or other organisations.
9. It is this concern which is reflected in the precautionary advisories issued by the counter-terrorism authorities of the US and Israel to their citizens planning to travel to India either for business or on holiday in the coming festive weeks when some important Hindu festivals and Christmas could provide an opportunity for fresh attacks on soft targets.
10. Damaging our growing economy and shaking the confidence of foreign businessmen about the security of life and property in India have been important objectives of the sub-continental jihadi organisations. The forthcoming Commonwealth Games in India next year could provide an opportunity to the terrorists to damage India's reputation in the eyes of the world by disrupting the preparations for the Games through terrorist attacks against the proposed venues for the Games as they are getting ready. A drill for effective physical security in connection with the Games has to be in position right from now. (19-9-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
In his latest message addressed to the Americam people, which was disseminated by pro-Al Qaeda web sites immediately after the eighth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, Osama bin Laden has warned of a long war of attrition against the US. The final objective of the war would be not just the withdrawal of the US-led forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, but a withdrawal of US support to Israel and the establishment of an independent State of Palestine with East Jerusalem in which the sacred Al Aqsa mosque is located as its capital.
2. He has cited the pro-Israel policies of successive US administrations as the principal cause for the 9/11 terrorist strikes and warned that the war thus launched would continue till the US gives up its pro-Israel policies and gives satisfaction to the Palestinians. His message is remarkably free of expressions such as jihad against the crusaders, recovery of legitimate Muslim territories etc. Just as President Barack Obama has reduced the objective of the military campaign in Afghanistan to one of preventing any more 9/11s in the US homeland mounted from the Af-Pak region, bin Laden has reduced the objective of Al Qaeda and his International Islamic Front to one of helping the Palestinians achieve an independent State and recover East Jerusalem from the control of Israel.
3. The war for such a purpose will be fought wherever possible and wherever opportunities for actions exist. It will not be confined only to the West Asian region. For him, not only the US, but any State, which supports Israel, could be a legitimate target of attacks---against its nationals and interests and against Israeli nationals in its territory.
4. It is in the light of this interpretation of his message that one has to assess India's vulnerabilities and the threats that India could face. As a country perceived by Al Qaeda and its associates in the Af-Pak region as close to Israel, India would continue to be vulnerable to terrorist strikes by Al Qaeda and its Pakistani associates as well as by our own jihadi groups, which share the perceptions of Al Qaeda. Their attacks against Indian nationals and interests or against Israeli and other pro-Israel foreign nationals in Indian territory would have two components--- a reprisal component and an attrition component.
5. Al Qaeda and sub-continental jihadi organisations have been looking for opportunities to target Israelis in Indian territory since 1991. The Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) targeted a group of young Israeli tourists in Srinagar in 1991. Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, who reportedly orchestrated the 9/11 strikes in the US, is reported to have told the US authorities during his interrogation that Al Qaeda wanted to target an Israeli diplomatic mission in India. For the last three or four years, there have been periodic reports of Indian and Pakistani organisations wanting to target Israeli tourists in Goa. And we had the targeted attack by Pakistani members of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on a Jewish cultural-cum-religious centre at the Narriman House in Mumbai and its Jewish inmates in November last year. The brutality exhibited by them towards the Jewish inmates was unparalleled in the history of jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory outside J&K. Other LET terrorists also targeted other foreigners in two hotels---many of them from countries involved in the operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
6. Not only the LET terrorists, but also their associates in other jihadi organisations in Pakistan and India must have been gratified by the ease with which the LET commandoes from Pakistan managed to hoodwink the Indian security agencies, hold them at bay for nearly 60 hours and receive the kind of prolonged global live publcity the like of which no other terrorist strike has achieved in recent years.
7. Just as we allegedly covered up our nuclear failure in 1998, we have covered up our counter-terrorism failures of November,2008.It has been an inadequately investigated terrorist conspiracy. Our euphoria over catching one terrorist alive has clouded our vision.Our over-focus on his version of the conspiracy has come in the way of our probing into other angles not possibly revealed by the captured terrorist or not within his knowledge. Every clued-up terrorist organisation strictly follows the principle of restrictive security. Every participant in a terrorist operation does not know all the details relating to that operation. That is where the importance of a satisfactory reconstruction of a terrorist operation arises. Without a satisfactory reconstruction, our ability to prevent similar strikes in future would be reduced. One is not certain there has been such a reconstruction. This would have been noticed by the terrorists too just as it has been noticed by the intelligence agencies of other countries.
8. The inadequate manner in which we have handled the sequel to Mumbai-26/11 is likely to have given cause for hope to the LET and other organisations that they can again successfully launch a major strike in Indian territory----even in Mumbai. It is also likely to have given cause for concern to the intelligence agencies of other countries about our ability to thwart a repeat of 26/11 by the LET or other organisations.
9. It is this concern which is reflected in the precautionary advisories issued by the counter-terrorism authorities of the US and Israel to their citizens planning to travel to India either for business or on holiday in the coming festive weeks when some important Hindu festivals and Christmas could provide an opportunity for fresh attacks on soft targets.
10. Damaging our growing economy and shaking the confidence of foreign businessmen about the security of life and property in India have been important objectives of the sub-continental jihadi organisations. The forthcoming Commonwealth Games in India next year could provide an opportunity to the terrorists to damage India's reputation in the eyes of the world by disrupting the preparations for the Games through terrorist attacks against the proposed venues for the Games as they are getting ready. A drill for effective physical security in connection with the Games has to be in position right from now. (19-9-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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